Non-urbanized territories as an element of economic space: trends and forecast of demographic development
https://doi.org/10.46554/1993-0453-2023-1-219-46-56
Abstract
Ensuring spatial development is one of the strategic tasks for Russia. The solution of this task depends on the effective realization of existing potential, solving problems and removing barriers to the development of not only large and largest urban agglomerations, cities, but also non-urbanized territories. The purpose of the article is to study trends and make a forecast of demographic development of non–urbanized (rural) territories of the European North of Russia. The research object is the non–urbanized (rural) territories of the European North of Russia. In the paper, methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison, economic and statistical analysis are used, population forecasting was conducted using the method of age distribution. It was revealed that the rural areas of the European North in 1990-2021 were characterized by trends of depopulation and migration outflow of the population (primarily of working age). It is established that for the period 2022-2041, a decrease in the rural population of the subjects of the European North is projected in the range from 16.3% to 44.6%. It is determined that negative trends in the demographic development of the non-urbanized (rural) areas, especially geostrategic northern regions, are a threat to the balanced spatial and sustainable socio-economic development of Russia. Measures to reduce the severity of depopulation and migration outflow problems are proposed.
Keywords
economic space,
region,
European North of Russia,
non-urbanized (rural) territories,
population,
forecast,
depopulation,
migration outflow
Supporting agencies: the article was prepared with the financial support of the RFBR in the framework of the scientific project No. 20-310-90035 "Mechanisms for increasing the role of rural areas in ensuring the balanced spatial development of the northern region"
About the Author
S. S. Patrakova
Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Svetlana S. Patrakova – researcher
Vologda
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Review
For citations:
Patrakova S.S. Non-urbanized territories as an element of economic space: trends and forecast of demographic development. Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics. 2023;(1):46-56. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.46554/1993-0453-2023-1-219-46-56
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