Methodological aspects of conducting an economic assessment of forecast resources based on fuzzy logic

Abstract

The assessment of the current state and forecast of the use of mineral resources are among the basic elements of planning in the field of subsoil use. At the same time, if the assessment of the state of mineral resources is generally a well-studied task, then when working with the assessment of forecast resources, it is necessary to involve experts. The peculiarity of using expert assessments is a fairly high level of their differentiation in individual cases. Accordingly, there is a need, on the one hand, to create an information system that could accumulate assessments and develop general recommendations based on expert opinions, and on the other hand, to develop a methodology that allows accumulating expert assessments based on general criteria. It is worth noting that the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic has been used for a long time to solve such problems. At the same time, it should be emphasized that in relation to the geological subject area and in particular for the expert assessment of the state of forecast resources, the use of fuzzy logic remains insufficiently studied. In this paper, an attempt is made to build a methodological chain from the formation of an ontological model of the system of economic assessment of forecast resources to the accumulation of estimates in fuzzy sets with the output of a consolidated result. The study is carried out on the example of forecast resources of solid minerals, including those common in the Bryansk region.