The concept of import substitution in Russia in conditions of increased external shocks and sanctions

The article examines the issue of forming the import substitution concept in the context of increasing external shocks, which is relevant for the Russian economy at the current stage of development. It is based on understanding of import substitution as consistent changes in the reproductive, sectoral and industrial, market, technological, institutional structure of the economy, with the inclusion of public-private partnerships in the circle of subjects and “markets of the future” of the National Technology Initiative in the system of market priorities. The author's methodology is formed by approaches to analyzing the place of import substitution in the system of structural changes, its typology and institutional support, and technological modernization of the real sector of the economy. The theoretical provisions that make up the concept of import substitution in the context of external shocks are presented by highlighting risks accompanying it (autarkization and technological backwardness, displacement from global value chains and rising inflation) and proposing ways to reduce them. They are the transition to the required institutional trajectory, the formation of the required institutional environment and the regime for its implementation, the use of organizational and financial instruments of public-private partnership for import substitution (tax, credit, investments). A special place in the article is given to the requirements to the methodology for assessing changes in the structure of import substitution as an element of its concept.

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