Nonlinear influence of social and economic changes on problematic indicators of regional sustainable development (based on data from the Altai region)
Abstract
This paper investigates an approach to explore the nature of problematic indicators of regional development sustainability within the planning and strategizing process. The main components of the approach are the analysis of a set of indicators of regional sustainable development and the identification of the relationship of problematic indicators with other social and economic factors based on econometric methodology. Time series and methods for determining their cointegration relationships, that is, the presence of their stable long-term correlations, were selected as an statistical basis. The study presented in the article is aimed at improving the efficiency of methods for analyzing and forecasting problematic indicators of regional sustainable development. The authors developed an algorithm for identifying factors that influence such indicators of regional development, and created a software implementation of this algorithm, as well as conducted computational experiments and suggested recommendations for the alpplication of the identified patterns. The approaches and methods used in this work to analyze the impact of social and economic changes on the indicators of sustainable development of the Altai region can be applied to other regions of the Russian Federation.
Keywords
Supporting agencies: The research was carried out as part of the financing with the support of the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (grant ИРН АР 23490443) “Human capital management, improving the quality of labor resources in the context of the development of the digital economy”.
About the Authors
D. Yu. Popolzin
Altai State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Danil Yu. Popolzin – Postgraduate Student; Consultant to the Situation Center of the Secretariat of the Governor of the Altai Territory of the Governor's Administration and the Government of the Altai Territory,
Barnaul.
I. N. Dubina
Altai State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Igor N. Dubina – Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor,
Barnaul.
Zh. B. Rakhmetulina
L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Zhibek B. Rakhmetulina – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Professor, Professor of the University,
Astana.
References
1. On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation : Federal Law No. 172-FZ dated 28.06.2014. URL: http://pravo.gov.ru/proxy/ips/?docbody=&firstDoc=1&lastDoc=1&nd=102354386 (date of access: 01.04.2024).
2. Regulatory Strategic Planning Framework: Fundamentals, Unsolved Problems and Development Directions : monography / Yu.V. Mishin [et al.]. Moscow : Nauka, 2019. 406 p. doi: 10.18184/978-5-9902341-3-0.
3. Strategy of socio-economic development of the Altai Territory until 2035 : approved By the Law of the Altai Territory dated 06.09.2021 No. 86-ZS. URL: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/2200202109080001?ysclid=luh650omdh324990329 (date of access: 01.04.2024).
4. Trotskovsky A.Ya., Rodionova L.V., Sergienko A.M. Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of the Altai Krai Up to 2035: Expert Assessment and Proposals to Improve // Economics Profession Business. 2019. No. 2. Pp. 79–85. doi: 10.14258/epb201924.
5. Technical report by the Bureau of the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC) on the process of the development of an indicator framework for the goals and targets of the post-2015 development agenda. URL: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/6754Technical%20report%20of%20the%20UNSC%20Bureau%20%28final%29.pdf (date of access: 06.03.2024).
6. Voluntary national review of the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/cW1DBqYs/Добровольный%20национальный%20обзор%202020.pdf (date of access: 06.03.2024).
7. Sustainable Development Goals in the Russian Federation / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/SDG_Russia_2023_RUS.pdf (date of access: 06.03.2024).
8. Tsybatov V.A., Pavlov L.P. The Use of Technology for Assessing the Achievability of Targets in Updating the Strategy of Socio-Economic Development of the Altai Territory // Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics. 2014. No. 7. Pp. 20–29.
9. Dolado J.J., Jenkinson T., Sosvilla‐Rivero S. Cointegration and unit roots // Journal of economic surveys. 1990. Vol. 4, No. 3. Pp. 249–273. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.1990.tb00088.x.
10. Fotopoulos S.B., Ahn S.K. Rank based Dickey–Fuller test statistics // Journal of Time Series Analysis. 2003. Vol. 24, No. 6. Pp. 647–662. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.2003.00327.x.
11. Zivot E., Andrews D.W.K. Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis // Journal of business & economic statistics. 2002. Vol. 20, No. 1. Pp. 25–44. doi: 10.1198/073500102753410372.
12. Kanioura A., Turner P. The error correction model as a test for cointegration. 2003.
13. Kitamura Y. Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models: by Søren Johansen, Oxford University Press, 1995 // Econometric Theory. 1998. Vol. 14, No. 4. Pp. 517–524. doi: 10.1017/S0266466698144067.
14. Shin Y., Yu B., Greenwood-Nimmo M. Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework // Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications. 2014. Pp. 281–314. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9.
15. Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/210/document/13204 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
16. Gross regional product / Office of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Altai Territory and the Altai Republic. URL: https://22.rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/01_ВРП_1998-2022(1).xlsx (date of access: 17.04.2024).
17. Region's Sustainable Development Prediction on the Basis of Economic-Mathematical Modeling / S.M. Vdovin [et al.] // National Interests: Priorities and Security. 2016. No. 9. Pp. 18–27.
18. Factors of Sustainable Development of Russian Regions : monography / O.A. Belousov [et al.]. Novosibirsk : SIBPRINT, 2011. 313 p.
19. Ratings / SGM Rating Agency. URL: https://agencysgm.com/ratings/ (date of access: 06.03.2024).
20. Ranking of regions by indicators of achievement of the UN SDGs / MGIMO. URL: https://ranking.mgimo.ru/ (date of access: 06.03.2024).
21. Bobylev S.N. Indicators of Sustainable Development: Regional Dimension: a Handbook on Regional Environmental Policy : monography. Moscow : Acropolis, CEPR, 2007. 60 p.
22. Gross value added / Office of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Altai Territory and the Altai Republic. URL: https://22.rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/01_ВДС_ОКВЭД2_2016-2022.xlsx (date of access: 17.04.2024).
23. The length of public roads of local importance / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/40581?ysclid=lt1ax9yxa1812200755 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
24. Cargo turnover of public road transport / Office of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Altai Territory and the Altai Republic. URL: https://22.rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/ДЛЯ%20САЙТА.pdf (date of access: 06.03.2024).
25. The share of researchers under the age of 39 in the total number of Russian researchers / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/43587?ysclid=lt1cwbwtyp361905310 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
26. Morbidity with a diagnosis of alcoholism and alcoholic psychosis for the first time in life per 100,000 population / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/41703 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
27. Morbidity with a first-time diagnosis of drug addiction per 100,000 population / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/41701 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
28. Total fertility rate / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/55407 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
29. The share of waste allocated for recycling as a result of separate accumulation and processing (sorting) of solid municipal waste in the total mass of solid municipal waste generated / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/61941?ysclid=lszn6qikc5788303854 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
30. The share of solid municipal waste directed to processing (sorting) in the total mass of solid municipal waste generated / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/61943?ysclid=lsznnoeu5n161489957 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
31. Information on the formation, processing, disposal, neutralization, disposal of production and consumption waste / Federal Service for Supervision of Environmental Management. URL: https://rpn.gov.ru/open-service/analytic-data/statistic-reports/production-consumption-waste/ (date of access: 06.03.2024).
32. Goods of own production were shipped, works and services were performed on their own / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/57722?ysclid=lvhqiidbit662163377 (date of access: 27.04.2024).
33. Electricity consumption in the Russian Federation / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/43277 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
34. Consumer price indices for goods and services / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31074?ysclid=lvhz5q6nae610882559 (date of access: 27.04.2024).
35. Statistical Yearbook 2022 / Office of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Altai Territory and the Altai Republic. URL: https://22.rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Ежегодник_Алт_край_на%20сайт_2022(1).pdf (date of access: 18.04.2024).
36. Key performance indicators of road transport / Office of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Altai Territory and the Altai Republic. URL: https://22.rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/2022_транспорт_889858_889877.htm (date of access: 22.04.2024).
37. The number of own passenger cars per 1 thousand people of the population / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/obesp_legk_avto.xls (date of access: 22.04.2024).
38. Postgraduate and doctoral studies activities / Office of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Altai Territory and the Altai Republic. URL: https://22.rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Деятельность+ аспирантуры+и+докторантуры.doc (date of access: 23.04.2024).
39. The number of employees who performed scientific research and development / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31555?ysclid=lx9sslfpc4469612003 (date of access: 29.04.2024).
40. Internal research and development costs from all sources / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/33383?ysclid=lt1d2njw9r683549201 (date of access: 06.03.2024).
41. The volume of innovative goods, works, and services / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31278?ysclid=lzv7li56c8946280805 (date of access: 23.04.2024)
42. Total costs of innovation activities / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Innov-5.xls (date of access: 23.04.2024).
43. Average monthly nominal accrued salary / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/tab4-zpl_2023.xlsx (date of access: 29.04.2024).
44. The volume of social payments to the population / Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/UROV-14a_2010-2022.xlsx (date of access: 29.04.2024).
Review
For citations:
Popolzin D.Yu., Dubina I.N., Rakhmetulina Zh.B. Nonlinear influence of social and economic changes on problematic indicators of regional sustainable development (based on data from the Altai region). Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics. 2025;(1):42-59. (In Russ.)
Views:
4
Email this article 