Application of mathematical game theory for decision making under conditions of risk on the example of agriculture in mountain and foothill regions of the Republic of North Ossetia – Alania

Abstract

In modern economic conditions, modern technologies based on the use of mathematical tools are used to analyze and forecast various types of activities. This article investigates possibilities of using game theory for decision making under risk conditions. The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for choosing the optimal strategy when making decisions at agricultural enterprises based on mathematical modeling and conducting a computational experiment. The work carried out a computational experiment to predict three variants of strategies using the example of an agricultural enterprise. According to three selection criteria (Bayesian, Laplace, Germeier), in order to obtain maximum income, the player is recommended to choose strategy A1 (carry out complex treatment of plants to prevent damage by weeds, pests and diseases). The work examined the initial data that led to the choice of one strategy. However, other agricultural enterprises can use their own initial data and systematized universal criteria, formulas, tables to conduct their own computational experiments and choose a strategy. Thus, to select a successful behavioral strategy from the standpoint of economic efficiency, the use of mathematical methods is appropriate. The assessment methods considered in the study make it possible to streamline ideas about possible threats for decision-making under risk conditions. The results obtained will allow us to formulate a preliminary decision-making algorithm with the best strategic potential.