Main approaches to the analysis and forecasting of the dividend policy of companies
Abstract
The objective of this work is to develop a model capable of forecasting the probability of changes in dividend payments based on the analysis of the company's financial indicators. An analysis of existing scientific approaches to forecasting dividend payments, including signaling theory, agency cost theory, behavioral factors, etc., is conducted. Particular attention is paid to the influence of financial indicators (return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity, free cash flow (FCF), revenue growth rate, etc.) on dividend payment decisions. The relevance of the study is due to the need to develop tools for forecasting dividend policy, which is especially important for investors and financial analysts in the context of market instability. A methodology for constructing a model based on logistic regression, which can be used to assess the probability of changes in dividend payments, is proposed and tested. The results of the work are theoretical in nature and can serve as a basis for further applied research. Practical recommendations are given for choosing tools for implementing models in order to effectively build and test predictive models of dividend policy.
About the Authors
O. A. Bulavko
Samara State University of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Olga A. Bulavko
Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor of the Department of Economics, Organization and Strategy of Enterprise Development
Samara
P. Kh. Katabay
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Pavel Kh. Katabay
Head of the Department for Work with Dissertation councils
Moscow
O. E. Startseva
Samara State University of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Oksana E. Startseva
applicant
Samara
A. A. Shirnin
Samara State University of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexey A. Shirnin
postgraduate student
Samara
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Review
For citations:
Bulavko O.A., Katabay P.Kh., Startseva O.E., Shirnin A.A. Main approaches to the analysis and forecasting of the dividend policy of companies. Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics. 2025;(9):118-125. (In Russ.)
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