The article examines the issue of forming the import substitution concept in the context of increasing external shocks, which is relevant for the Russian economy at the current stage of development. It is based on understanding of import substitution as consistent changes in the reproductive, sectoral and industrial, market, technological, institutional structure of the economy, with the inclusion of public-private partnerships in the circle of subjects and “markets of the future” of the National Technology Initiative in the system of market priorities. The author's methodology is formed by approaches to analyzing the place of import substitution in the system of structural changes, its typology and institutional support, and technological modernization of the real sector of the economy. The theoretical provisions that make up the concept of import substitution in the context of external shocks are presented by highlighting risks accompanying it (autarkization and technological backwardness, displacement from global value chains and rising inflation) and proposing ways to reduce them. They are the transition to the required institutional trajectory, the formation of the required institutional environment and the regime for its implementation, the use of organizational and financial instruments of public-private partnership for import substitution (tax, credit, investments). A special place in the article is given to the requirements to the methodology for assessing changes in the structure of import substitution as an element of its concept.

The article investigates specific features of forecasting macroeconomic indicators using the mean-adjusted BVAR model. The BVAR model is widely used for analyzing economic time series, but its predictive ability can be improved by including an adjustment for the average value. The authors analyze the effectiveness of forecasting based on the mean-adjusted BVAR model using the example of various macroeconomic indicators. The study showed that the mean-adjusted BVAR model is more effective than other models for forecasting inflation, industrial production index and money supply. It copes particularly well with long-term forecasts and surpasses the traditional BVAR model due to the updated specification. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the systematic selection of the optimal hyperparameter for the a priori distribution of Minnesota and the comparison of the predictive power of mean-adjusted BVAR with competing models based on Russian data. The results of the work will help to improve the quality of economic forecasts and improve the efficiency of decision-making in an unstable economic environment.

The dairy industry in the Ryazan region demonstrates steady growth and development. There is an increase in milk the production and cow productivity. At the same time, there is an uneven development of the industry in the municipalities of the region. The article presents a grouping of municipalities of the Ryazan region according to the development level of the dairy cattle industry. The reasons for the current situation are revealed. The information base of the study was data from Ryazanstat, official information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Ryazan region. The existing measures of the state support in the dairy industry are presented. The statistics of the volume of state support for the industry and the growth rate of milk production in the context of federal districts are presented. Taking this into account, directions for improving the state agri-food policy are proposed.

The article proposes the author's methodology that allows comparing sections and classes of regional economies based on the important development coefficient (IDC), which takes into account labor productivity and its growth, as well as the local and federal significance of the compared classes of the economy. The methodology was successfully applied to determine the industry competitive advantages of sections and classes of regional economies of the Far Eastern Federal District and to form development priorities for the district as a whole on their basis.

At the stage of the structural transformation of the Russian economy, the need for social credit is increasing. The effective fulfillment of the social role of credits will contribute to improving the well-being of the population and the development of the economy as a whole. This is especially true for the population of contemporary Russia, which has become very vulnerable in the face of new challenges of the time. The purpose of the article is to define social credit, consider its varieties and analyze its role, justify measures to improve this type of credit relations. When writing the article, situational and systematic approaches of scientific research were used, including the analysis of publications on the problem of social loans, as a result of which the definition of social credit was formulated. In addition, based on the analysis of statistical data, an assessment of the effectiveness of the role performed by social credit was given. The results of the analysis demonstrated the insufficiently effective functioning of modern social credits, which is confirmed by their low social effect. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the assessment and determination of the place of modern social credits. The obtained research results can be applied in the improvement of social credits to increase the positive social effect and expand the socially oriented activities of banks.

In the context of the formation of the digital economy, the heads of industrial enterprises are forced to introduce digital technologies into all areas of the organization's activities, i.e. to carry out the digital development of companies. In this regard, a lot of works of the world scientific community are aimed primarily at problems and results of enterprises using diverse digital tools, including changing business models, ways of creating value, etc. The purpose of this work is to attribute the digital development of an industrial enterprise and identify, using empirical data, the key role of digital transformation as a determinant of managing the development of an organization. The research is based on analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction, dichotomy, tabular and graphical methods, as well as on the laws of formal logic and data from open sources. The paper presents the author's interpretation of the digital development of an industrial enterprise, taking into account the managerial aspect. Digital transformation and digitalization are proposed as dichotomous types of digital development. They are given a brief description. It is noted that, based on their characteristics and the expediency of using resources, for the same object during a separate period of time, the company's management should carry out one of the dichotomous types of digital development or sequentially alternate them. Continuity, constancy, regularity/periodicity, and diversity are proposed as the main attributes of the digital transformation. The typology of digital development of an industrial enterprise in the coordinate system "level of digital development – time" is presented. The main data on the digital development of organizations are presented, confirming the priority of digital transformation for managing the development of an enterprise in modern conditions.

Effective management of organizational changes at an industrial enterprise requires an increase in the quality of employees’ motivation based on a comprehensive assessment of its parameters. The article reveals the author's understanding of the approach to assessing the quality of personnel motivation in the organizational change management system and the results of its testing at a textile enterprise. The purpose of the article is to substantiate and demonstrate possibilities of quantitative measurements and assessment of employees’ motivation to implement organizational changes at an industrial enterprise. The current and potential stability of motivation are distinguished. A new formula for organizational changes has been developed. It differs from R. Burkhard’s formula by taking into account the importance of motives and the need for differentiated management of types of motivational stability and changes. The role and place of each motivation quality parameter in the organizational change management system is identified. A technology has been created for measuring synergistic motivational effects and damages based on the phenomenon of polystructural motives. Quantitative measurements of the quality of motivation of managers, specialists and workers of a textile enterprise were carried out. As a result of the study, the author draws a conclusion about the underdevelopment of motivation management for organizational changes at a textile enterprise, and the practical usefulness of the proposed methodology for reducing the severity of this socio-economic problem.

The article provides an overview of the approaches presented in various studies to identify critical risks of companies. The necessity of applying standards in risk management within the framework of entrepreneurial activity has been confirmed. The analysis of the development of risk management at enterprises in Samara and the Samara region is carried out.

In this article, by studying the theory and research of the direction of bank project financing, as well as analyzing the methodology for evaluating investment projects by Sberbank PJSC, recommendations have been developed to improve methodological tools for evaluating residential investment projects by the bank in order to implement project financing based on the identified shortcomings of the existing methodology. Among the latter, it was noted, in particular, the lack of a necessary assessment of the demand for the project directly for the population, on which the return of financing from the borrower to the lender depends.